With Santorum out, it’s Ron Paul, not Newt Gingrich, who benefits (a little)
By David Rothschild | The Signal – 3 hrs ago
Although he had vowed to stay in the race through the Pennsylvania primary, Rick Santorum dropped out of the Republican nominating contest Tuesday, effectively clearing the way for Mitt Romney to secure the nod.
While Santorum was still running, there was a lot of speculation as to whether Newt Gingrich's supporters would go to the former Pennsylvania senator if Gingrich dropped out, forming a more united anti-Romney front. (Polling suggests they were about evenly split on their second choice.) The opposite, apparently, is not true. Santorum's exit has provided no benefit to his two remaining challengers when it comes to winning the nomination, and just little when it comes to carrying a primary. Even when Santorum remained in the race, we had Romney with a large lead in Pennsylvania, with about an 88 percent likelihood of victory. That has since gone to nearly 100 percent likelihood, according to the political markets.
Gingrich is excited to be the last legitimate challenger to Romney, at least in his own mind, having told Justin Sink of the Hill that "there's a conservative, named Newt Gingrich, and there's Mitt Romney." But with Santorum out, Gingrich's likelihood in any given primary contest remains negligible.
In fact, it's Ron Paul who has an increased likelihood of carrying a state with Santorum out of the way. The market on Paul winning any primary (other than the disputed Maine) jumped to a 7 percent likelihood Wednesday. He has small but non-negligible chances in a few states, including Kentucky, home of his son, Sen. Rand Paul. Santorum dropping out will allow Romney to focus fewer resources on some small states with late primaries, giving Paul and his massive national organization the opportunity for a surprise win.
Follow along in real time on PredictWise for presidential election odds, where Barack Obama is currently 63.1 percent likely to defeat Romney.
David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.
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kya bood-o-bash poocho ho purab ke sakino! hum ko gareeb jan ke, hans hans pukar ke...
jis ko falak ne loot ke veeran kar diya, hum rehne walay hain usi ujray dyar ke -
a big reason santorum dropped out is because he didn't want to be humiliated in his home state of pennsylvania. he already got squashed there in 06 when he lost his senate seat, and all the polls showed that he was behind romney this time around. you were entertaining while you lasted rick! now go back to doing whatever you've been up to for the last 6 years...
__________________
kya bood-o-bash poocho ho purab ke sakino! hum ko gareeb jan ke, hans hans pukar ke...
jis ko falak ne loot ke veeran kar diya, hum rehne walay hain usi ujray dyar ke -
The news from Republican camp is a buzz that Jeb Bush is weighing options to accept VP candidacy if asked by Romney. Romney has kept him among his short list of candidates.
__________________
kya bood-o-bash poocho ho purab ke sakino! hum ko gareeb jan ke, hans hans pukar ke...
jis ko falak ne loot ke veeran kar diya, hum rehne walay hain usi ujray dyar ke -
So Paul wins majority delegates for Minnesota and Iowa, more to definitely follow!
what does this mean?
also, rachel maddow is BY FAR the best talk show host in the US today. very centrist and intelligent, isn't biased based on political parties, just biased towards the sensible arguments.
^ what this essentially means is that until Romney reaches the delegate count of 1100 something to secure his nomination, the game isn't over. References to previous presidential races are being made, Warren G. Harding came into the republican convention with the fewest number of delegates, he came out of the convention as the nominee (after the 10th ballot), and eventually went to become President. There is also the example of Barry Goldwater (lost of Lyndon Johnson in 1964). Not saying its gonna happen in this election, but it is a possibility, and one that gives supporters like myself a lot of hope (I'll be voting for Paul anyway soo yeah haha!)
^ what this essentially means is that until Romney reaches the delegate count of 1100 something to secure his nomination, the game isn't over. References to previous presidential races are being made, Warren G. Harding came into the republican convention with the fewest number of delegates, he came out of the convention as the nominee (after the 10th ballot), and eventually went to become President. There is also the example of Barry Goldwater (lost of Lyndon Johnson in 1964). Not saying its gonna happen in this election, but it is a possibility, and one that gives supporters like myself a lot of hope (I'll be voting for Paul anyway soo yeah haha!)
lol come on man there is no way paul is winning the nomination.
^ I just gave you some examples of exactly such a thing happening in the past, so its really not as ridiculous as people make it seem. That being said, the Paul campaign and its supporters have always known that his nomination is a longshot. He has no support from the banks, the corporate owned news media nor the military industrial complex, so of course the chances are going to be slim. That doesn't stop most of us from carrying on though...Ron Paul is coming to my campus in 8 days
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