Military action in FATA...discuss strategy, timing, and utility - PakMusic - The Pure Pakistani Forums | Pakistani Music Movies Dramas Desi Forums

adil_909 · #1 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 01:16 PM

When is the right time for military to go in? We've been hearing for years about how we don't have the manpower to go after waziristan and other areas in fata. well is it a question of resources, or is it a question of not wanting to take action? is our central government too weak to authorize such a move? will imran khan have the guts to initiate such a move if his party was given control of the army? how can we launch this mission minimizing civilian casualties? what are the consequences of our inaction?

so many questions, and sadly i dont think i have an answer to a single one of them. well all except one, SOMETHING HAS TO BE DONE SOON!

Das Boot · #2 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 03:17 PM

Wait what? Imran will send army in waziristan !?

Yaar you are such a "bhola" for someone who is becoming a doctor...

AHMAD\ · #3 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adil_909

When is the right time for military to go in? We've been hearing for years about how we don't have the manpower to go after waziristan and other areas in fata. well is it a question of resources, or is it a question of not wanting to take action? is our central government too weak to authorize such a move? will imran khan have the guts to initiate such a move if his party was given control of the army? how can we launch this mission minimizing civilian casualties? what are the consequences of our inaction?

so many questions, and sadly i dont think i have an answer to a single one of them. well all except one, SOMETHING HAS TO BE DONE SOON!

well the issue is that these militants have sympathizers well penetrated in the army. These are the same people who allow infiltration of militants in army wings that resulted in attacks on GHQ and Mehran base. There is a strong wing in army (not know if majority or not) who is a taliban sympathizer, that is the root cause of this problem. It is the problem of intent , it was never the problem of resources. That's why US question the seriousness about all talk. After all they have assembled the 6th largest army and telling world that there are resource limitations to carry out military action...who's gonna believe that?

I have firm believe that the day army want it, they get it done. Just like when they want Sawat operation they got it done. These militants are no match to a state army. But the problem again is inside army, not outside.

And I am with Das Boot, forget about Imran Khan taking any initiative to curb this issue. That's where I have strategical and policy differences with him. I don't vote there, but I will not be supporting him if he's keep preaching this stupidity.

cyborg909 · #4 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 05:59 PM

Do you want serious debate or rhetorics? Cuz am gonna say things you guys not gonna like, so if thread is abt chest thumping, ideological excercise and an excuse to show outrage abt malala then i will stay quiet, if you want serious debate then be advise i will say things you wont like and on 1st accusation of zia parasat, right wing TTP sympathizer am gonna cease debating. So lemme know

Sarem · #5 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 06:03 PM

What sort of strategy would they ensue? Leadership decapitation is already taking place via drone strikes....are they going to do full fledged COIN operations? Swat was an area where the military could carry out the writ of the state. It won't be the same in Waziristan, especially when one considers the nature of Pashtun tribal politics.

maverick86 · #6 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 06:04 PM

@cyborgI actually liked the 5 points you put forth in the other thread...maybe you should reproduce em here too...

cyborg909 · #7 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maverick86

@cyborgI actually liked the 5 points you put forth in the other thread...maybe you should reproduce em here too...

I strongly believe, for a message to succeed the practitioner or follower have to be morally above the opposition. Unfortunately that have not been the case with State of Pak.

The points I raised are impractical at this stage under current govt and kinda invalid in tribal area, hence I suggested emphasis on law and order with existing laws which is more practical approach.

That said under what legal authority we are operating in Tribal area? Do remember they are in alliance with Pak we have broken the conditions that made them join Pakistan several times.

Now going back to South Waziristan, once again we have Waziristan accord of 2006, are we now gonna break that? Back then that accord was admission we lost the war and we want to save face. The history of tribale belt is filled with pakistan state making accord at thier convinience and then breaking them when its suits them.

Secondly if we are to use military force in waziristan because of terrorism and anti-state activities then that principal should be applied all over pakistan. So if its fine in waziristan it sure is fine in baluchistan and its damn more urgently needed in Karachi, which has seen 1000 dead bodies so far this year alone, the combined killing in karachi is worst then combined killing done by TTP. Karachi being the nerve centre of pak I think deserve more urgent attention, we can after all kinda isoltae tribal belt as we been doing since last 2 yrs with targetted operations.

Lastly, the situation is very complex and requires cool calculated moves with no short term solutions but with long term vision and eradicating the root cause. Consider the following please

1 - There can't be no peace unless there is peace in afghanistan which can't happen unless complete withdrawl of foreign forces, which not gonna happen because US has already indicated they will keep bases which will continue the insurgency and pakistan would be getting mired by spill over.

2 - Drone strike as main weapon instead of a tool with higher restriction will continue to dissaude ppl. They are immoral, illegal and violates our soverignity till Govt atleast comes clean and disengage themselves there will be militants expliting it,

3 - To make a meaninful change in tribal areas, military operations alone are not the answer. 1st FCR has to go and each agency in the tribal belt to be given provincial status and the autonmous state of the tribal belt to be abolished. This will allow state mechanism to come and allow more legal and legit means to tackle the problem of militancy.

4 - We still have the goodwill of many local tribesman, its high time we settle in bases in the region and recruit them in the army, so they get use to of discipline and get gainful employment (infact I think pakistan should have mandarory military service for all citizens). That will also allow economic development and local resources to fight off militancy.

5 - There is nothing wrong with Public opinion in pakustan, TTP or like minded groups donot enjoy majority of support heck there support is not even majorly significant. So for God sake stop blaming Pakistanis. The issue is very simple, most pakistanis are conservative socially but not findamentally and as all other socities they hate when someone tries to push down thier ideology down thier throats. Its high time moderation should kick in, from both left and right, otherwise polarization gonna get worst and only right wing extremism will gain as evident world wide.

AHMAD\ · #8 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyborg909

I strongly believe, for a message to succeed the practitioner or follower have to be morally above the opposition. Unfortunately that have not been the case with State of Pak.

The points I raised are impractical at this stage under current govt and kinda invalid in tribal area, hence I suggested emphasis on law and order with existing laws which is more practical approach.

That said under what legal authority we are operating in Tribal area? Do remember they are in alliance with Pak we have broken the conditions that made them join Pakistan several times.

Now going back to South Waziristan, once again we have Waziristan accord of 2006, are we now gonna break that? Back then that accord was admission we lost the war and we want to save face. The history of tribale belt is filled with pakistan state making accord at thier convinience and then breaking them when its suits them.

Secondly if we are to use military force in waziristan because of terrorism and anti-state activities then that principal should be applied all over pakistan. So if its fine in waziristan it sure is fine in baluchistan and its damn more urgently needed in Karachi, which has seen 1000 dead bodies so far this year alone, the combined killing in karachi is worst then combined killing done by TTP. Karachi being the nerve centre of pak I think deserve more urgent attention, we can after all kinda isoltae tribal belt as we been doing since last 2 yrs with targetted operations.

Lastly, the situation is very complex and requires cool calculated moves with no short term solutions but with long term vision and eradicating the root cause. Consider the following please

1 - There can't be no peace unless there is peace in afghanistan which can't happen unless complete withdrawl of foreign forces, which not gonna happen because US has already indicated they will keep bases which will continue the insurgency and pakistan would be getting mired by spill over.

2 - Drone strike as main weapon instead of a tool with higher restriction will continue to dissaude ppl. They are immoral, illegal and violates our soverignity till Govt atleast comes clean and disengage themselves there will be militants expliting it,

3 - To make a meaninful change in tribal areas, military operations alone are not the answer. 1st FCR has to go and each agency in the tribal belt to be given provincial status and the autonmous state of the tribal belt to be abolished. This will allow state mechanism to come and allow more legal and legit means to tackle the problem of militancy.

4 - We still have the goodwill of many local tribesman, its high time we settle in bases in the region and recruit them in the army, so they get use to of discipline and get gainful employment (infact I think pakistan should have mandarory military service for all citizens). That will also allow economic development and local resources to fight off militancy.

5 - There is nothing wrong with Public opinion in pakustan, TTP or like minded groups donot enjoy majority of support heck there support is not even majorly significant. So for God sake stop blaming Pakistanis. The issue is very simple, most pakistanis are conservative socially but not findamentally and as all other socities they hate when someone tries to push down thier ideology down thier throats. Its high time moderation should kick in, from both left and right, otherwise polarization gonna get worst and only right wing extremism will gain as evident world wide.

I mildly agree with #4 and that's about it.

cyborg909 · #9 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AHMAD\

I mildly agree with #4 and that's about it.

so what exactly u find objectionable or disagreeable?

cyborg909 · #10 (**permalink**) 10-10-2012, 10:12 PM

Here is the list of all forces in area so u can see we already have forces in the area and they continue the operations;

Order of Battle: Pakistani Military in FATA and Northwest Frontier Province | Critical Threats

1 division has 10,000 - 30, 000 soldiers . Currently 1/3 of Pak defence forces are engaged against TTP. This is in addition to two out of three divisions of XI Corp, based out of Peshawar, which are conducting operations in South and North Waziristan. All these regular forces are joined by the 700 strong Zarrar Battalion of the Special Services Group, the Pakistani Green Berets.

In addition, paramilitaries such as Bajaur, Dir and Tochi Scouts numbering in excess of 21,000 men are fighting alongside the regular army. This takes the total manpower deployment for action against the TTP to more than 170,000 troops and paramilitaries.

IDMC | Internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Pakistan

Quote:

According to official statistics, some 850,000 people from FATA remained internally displaced at the end of 2011; ongoing insecurity, the destruction of infrastructure and land disputes all continued to obstruct their return. More than 150,000 people were forced from their homes in 2011

10,000 registered IDPs from Mohmand agency displaced to the Nahaqai and Danishkool camps in early 2011 had returned to their areas of origin by November, as had some 23,000 households displaced from Orakzai during 2010. 6,600 of around 42,000 families displaced from South Waziristan returned. However, the government did not report on the progress of IDPs towards other durable solutions.

This should give u guys a rough idea, its not like pak army sitting on its collectve ass, they are engaged its just how much front u want to open and how much we can afford.

Das Boot · #11 (**permalink**) 10-11-2012, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyborg909

so what exactly u find objectionable or disagreeable?

Each tribal area becoming a province? have fun getting ANP or anyone else to go along with that.

Btw, I thought Gilani had abolished or suspended FCR or was that all show as usual?

Tribals have to be dealt with as adults and as much Pakistan needs to abolish FCR, the tribals also would have to pay taxes like regular folks (no free electricity etc) and no stupid laws like women not allowed to vote in elections, though I think that the ECP rightly invalidated those elections. Imran talks the sweet talk but Ktfor some sita white / tribal reasions, he still wants to "talk" with TTP in waziristan. He is still stuck in the british mode, who gave props to the area's people, yet they were still bombing them until 1947. It is such a loss that he is such an akhrot.

cyborg909 · #12 (**permalink**) 10-11-2012, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Das Boot

Each tribal area becoming a province? have fun getting ANP or anyone else to go along with that.

Btw, I thought Gilani had abolished or suspended FCR or was that all show as usual?

Tribals have to be dealt with as adults and as much Pakistan needs to abolish FCR, the tribals also would have to pay taxes like regular folks (no free electricity etc) and no stupid laws like women not allowed to vote in elections, though I think that the ECP rightly invalidated those elections. Imran talks the sweet talk but Ktfor some sita white / tribal reasions, he still wants to "talk" with TTP in waziristan. He is still stuck in the british mode, who gave props to the area's people, yet they were still bombing them until 1947. It is such a loss that he is such an akhrot.

Well u have to bring in them as province we did with G & B so either we do it or we obey the pact we made with them. Since I don't believe FCR is the way to go only option left is to make them province, now u can make each agency a province or combined that is all open to negotiations. But these are only 2 logical options and province is better solution in long run.

Women not even alllowed to vote in lot of parts of pakistan, even in areas where they vote they get told whom to and when. So ant gonna change over night 1st thing 1st bring them under the pakistani law then we can tlk abt other things.

I suggest you stop reading ET and listen to his interview to Talat I posted here he never said talk with Talibaan so stop spreading lies like ET

Das Boot · #13 (**permalink**) 10-11-2012, 12:29 PM

^ Where is TTP based in Pakistan? Yes, in waziristan where drones are flying. Imran is on record on the gizillion talk shows that he does each week that the approach taken in swat was ok but not in wazirstan because, as per his views, waziristan is not "regular pakistan" and must be treated lightly for their tribal sensitivities. To be fair, I am not in favor of useless COIN of pakistani army batmens, but I do believe FC and a reconstituted police has to take a bigger role in all of this. No more killing and doing other crap and then hiding out in waziristan. North Waziristan has become a good excuse for every aera ghaira nathoo ghaira to do whatever the hell they want and then army says "oh well, we are streeetched so too bad tough luck".

Seriously, I expect more of this crap to happen because army and politicians are all a farce.

adil_909 · #14 (**permalink**) 10-11-2012, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyborg909

Here is the list of all forces in area so u can see we already have forces in the area and they continue the operations;

Order of Battle: Pakistani Military in FATA and Northwest Frontier Province | Critical Threats

1 division has 10,000 - 30, 000 soldiers . Currently 1/3 of Pak defence forces are engaged against TTP. This is in addition to two out of three divisions of XI Corp, based out of Peshawar, which are conducting operations in South and North Waziristan. All these regular forces are joined by the 700 strong Zarrar Battalion of the Special Services Group, the Pakistani Green Berets.

In addition, paramilitaries such as Bajaur, Dir and Tochi Scouts numbering in excess of 21,000 men are fighting alongside the regular army. This takes the total manpower deployment for action against the TTP to more than 170,000 troops and paramilitaries.

IDMC | Internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Pakistan

This should give u guys a rough idea, its not like pak army sitting on its collectve ass, they are engaged its just how much front u want to open and how much we can afford.

you wrote that 1/3 of pak defense force are engaged against TTP. my question to you would be, do you think TTP represents more or less than 1/3 of the security challenges faced by pakistan today? give this, do you think 1/3 is an appropriate number of forces that could be engaged?

adil_909 · #15 (**permalink**) 10-11-2012, 12:55 PM

additionally, tomorrow is jummah. each and every imam who has an ounce of patriotism should use their qudhba's tomorrow to denounce terrorism, denounce this attack, denounce all similar attacks, and vehemently denounce actions of ttp against innocent civilians! not only that, the media needs to get involved and engage members of the islamic community in pakistan and put them up on the airways. media has a CRUCIAL role in shaping public perception, and it's time it takes that responsibility seriously. without the media and islamic leaders on board, there is absolutely no point to having a military operation, nor should we get our hopes up about victory in this conflict.